Integrasi Peramalan Pola Iklim Menggunakan Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda pada Model Pranatamangsa Baru: studi kasus pada wilayah Kabupaten Boyolali

Abstract

Climate can be defined as the average weather conditions for extended periods. Climatic conditions often lead to failure and success in farming. Not only in agriculture but also affects the climate much like the spread of pests and diseases and disasters. The purpose of this study was to develop a new pranatamangsa system in accordance with climatic conditions present in the form of climate change in a web and graphic form. Forecasting methods used in this study is a Brown's One-Parameter. Double Exponential Smoothing. The results obtained in this study is a web application that can predict rainfall in certain areas based on existing historical data and displays a graph showing the difference between the forecast rainfall with previous prey institutions. Prediction results were analyzed by the method of mean absolute error so we get an mean absolute error in the smallest alpha = 0.2 is equal to 216 571.