Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://repository.uksw.edu//handle/123456789/26792
Title: Analisis Fenomena Kurva J di Indonesia
Authors: Lestari, Lia Ika
Keywords: J-Curve;exchange rate;trade balance
Issue Date: 2-Sep-2022
Abstract: Penggunaan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas di Indonesia memberikan konsekuensi fluktuasi nilai tukar Rupiah. Sesuai dengan teori Kurva J, apakah pelemahan nilai Rupiah tersebut akan berdampak pada perbaikan neraca perdagangan dalam jangka panjang atau justru akan semakin memperburuk kondisi neraca perdagangan dalam jangka panjang. Penelitian ini akan mengkaji bagaimana pengaruh nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap neraca perdagangan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang dan apakah fenomena kurva J terjadi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan teknik analisis Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dan pada periode pengamatan 2015.1-2020.12. Hasil penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa terjadi fenomena kurva J pada perekonomian Indonesia. Temuan menunjukkan depresiasi Rupiah dalam jangka pendek akan menyebabkan neraca perdagangan defisit, namun dalam jangka panjang depresiasi Rupiah akan menyebabkan surplus neraca perdagangan. Dari hasil dekomposisi varian menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar memiliki peranan besar dalam pembentukan fluktuasi pada neraca perdagangan. Selain itu, goncangan yang terjadi pada nilai tukar akan direspons oleh pergerakan posisi neraca perdagangan dan bersifat permanen yaitu sampai sepuluh periode ke depan. Keterbatasan dalam penelitian adalah identifikasi keberadaan fenomena kurva J dilakukan secara umum terhadap keseluruhan neraca perdagangan. Penelitian selanjutnya diharapkan dapat mengidentifikasi fenomena kurva J secara khusus pada beberapa negara mitra dagang Indonesia.
The free-floating exchange rate system in Indonesia has consequences for fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate. In accordance with the J-Curve theory, will the weakening of the Rupiah value have an impact on improving the trade balance in the long term or will it worsen the trade balance condition in the long term. This study will examine how the influence of the Rupiah exchange rate on the trade balance in both the short and long term and whether the JCurve phenomenon occurs in Indonesia using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis technique in the observation period 2015.1-2020.12. The results of this study prove that the J Curve phenomenon occurs in the Indonesian economy. The findings show that the depreciation of the Rupiah in the short term will cause a trade balance deficit, but in the long term, the depreciation of the Rupiah will cause a trade balance surplus. The results of the variance decomposition show that the exchange rate has a major role in the formation of fluctuations in the trade balance. In addition, shocks that occur in the exchange rate will be responded to by movements in the trade balance position and permanent, namely for the next ten periods. The limitation of this research is that the identification of the existence of the J curve phenomenon is generally carried out on the entire trade balance. Further research is expected to identify the J curve phenomenon specifically in several trading partner countries of Indonesia.
URI: https://repository.uksw.edu/handle/123456789/26792
Appears in Collections:T1 - Economics

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