Metode SARIMA Untuk Meramalkan Produksi Padi dengan Indikator Curah Hujan Kabupaten Boyolali Jawa Tengah periode 2012

Abstract

Rainfall according BMKG (the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics) Rain is a tangible form of liquid precipitation. Itself can be either solid precipitation (eg, snow and hail) or aerosol (such as dew and fog). Precipitation (precipitation) are liquids or solids derived from condensation or condensation moisture that falls from the clouds to the earth's surface.Planting rice field soil tillage is usually preceded by perfectly while farmer nurseries. Rice garden is rice planted gardens in the moor, gardens, fields. In the rice planting gardens is relatively easier compared to rice filed. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is a development of the model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) on time series data that have a seasonal pattern. Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is one of the popular models in forecasting a time series approach. ARIMA model consists of three main forms, namely models AR, MA, and ARMA. Box-Jenkis procedure is a standard procedure that is widely used in the ARIMA model building. This procedure consists of four iterative stages in the formation of ARIMA models in a time series data, namely the identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. In general, seasonal ARIMA or SARIMA models (Sesional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) consists of two kinds of models alone or seasonal ARIMA (P, D, Q) Sand multiplicative seasonal ARIMA models and nonmusiman or ARIMA (p, d, q) (P , D, Q) S, the S is the seasonal period. ACF and PACF of the available data and are stationary indicates that the seasonal laglag ACF and PACF tends dies down.